The Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo seems to be implying he’d like Ukraine to make “peace” with Russia, so that Finland’s ailing economy would get a boost before the April 2027 parliamentary elections. While this conclusion is not yet supported by evidence of Finnish aid to Ukraine fading, Orpo’s incentives and his past behaviour give cause for concern.
Background
Petteri Orpo, the leader of the conservative National Coalition Party and the prime minister of Finland since 2023, has been increasingly under fire for his handling of the Finnish economy. After 2023, Finnish economy has fallen in a recession and unemployment in Finland has increased from near record low to record high levels, soon to become the highest in the EU. What makes the situation particularly galling is the fact that employment is increasing in most of the EU, and Finland is now projected to be the only OECD country with no economic growth in 2025.
What’s more, the key election promise that led the coalition of right-wing parties to electoral victory in 2023, halting the increase of Finnish public debt, seems irreparably broken. The latest forecasts suggest that by 2027, mere overrun in borrowing compared to the budgeted promise will be a full 3/4ths of the total borrowing of the previous centre-left government that current ruling parties criticized heavily for “irresponsible” borrowing.
Economic slump – exacerbated by poorly timed, excessive and unpopular austerity cuts – broken promises, record falls in numerous measures of well-being (particularly child poverty and young people’s trust in their future, as well as in young people’s willingness to defend Finland) and repeated racism scandals caused by Orpo’s chosen partners in government, the radical right Finns party, have already made the current government one of the least popular ever. Now even beneficiaries of the government’s policies are joining the critics. Speaking to Helsingin Sanomat, the largest Finnish newspaper, a multimillionaire investor Kim Väisänen blamed Orpo’s government for Finland’s economic woes without mincing his words:
[The minister of finance from the radical right Finns party] Riikka Purra and Petteri Orpo have sold Finns the idea that there is no hope […] Then they wonder that people stop consuming. Fuck [sic!], this government has themselves destroyed the Finns’ faith in the future. (My translation)
Can Orpo resist the temptation?
Faced with the prospect of a defeat in the April 2027 elections and what many commentators believe a leadership struggle inside the Coalition party, Orpo’s incentives to do whatever deals whatever devil wants for even a temporary economic boost are growing by day.
Therefore, his recent comments how a “peace” in Ukraine would be a boost to Finnish economy, including in a 23 Dec interview with the daily Ilta-Sanomat, give cause for concern. I believe there is a real possibility, although by no means a certainty, that Orpo’s government will reduce its support to Ukraine, citing Finland’s economic problems, and behind the scenes join those who wish to pressure Ukraine to a disadvantageous peace treaty for at least temporary “end” of the war.
The concern is not allayed by Orpo’s past behaviour. As even the largely sympathetic interview notes, Orpo is known as a wily behind the scenes player. In 2017, he declared the Finns party’s values to be incompatible with the National Coalition Party’s values, and categorically ruled out joining a government with them. However, less than two years later, he was already negotiating with the radical right leader Jussi Halla-aho for a new government, which the Coalition duly formed after its promise to stop the indebtedness won the 2023 elections.
Followers of Finnish politics are also well aware of Orpo’s – frankly – spinelessness when it comes to reining in the excesses of his radical right partners. While only some of the scandals have attracted international attention, by one count the Finns have caused six racism-related scandals after Orpo solemnly declared, in response to one scandal, that his government will have “zero tolerance” for racism.
The latest scandal, caused by several radical right MPs making gestures deliberately offensive to Asians, is just another example of a now all too common pattern. The radical right does something so racist that it cannot be ignored; Orpo first ignores the problem, then – after pressed – downplays it, after more pressing demands the Finns give the perpetrators a slap on the wrist, and issues a statement proclaiming “racism has no place in Finland.” By now, even initially sympathetic media is no longer fooled: as one columnist noted, of course racism has place in Finland – in the highest chambers of the government.
The reason for this lack of leadership is clear: Orpo needs the radical right. If Orpo held to his stated promises, the government would collapse. With it, Orpo’s political project and political career would also be at an ignominious end.
In short, there is little evidence that Orpo has principles he isn’t willing to bend or outright ignore in order to advance his career. The evidence, including his own comments in the aforementioned interview and others, does point to a type of person who has no problems convincing himself that this flexibility is actually a good thing: he repeatedly stresses the importance of “compromises” and of “cooperating” with “everyone.” However, his tolerance seems to be aimed towards right-wing parties: Orpo is widely rumored to intensely dislike the previous prime minister, a left-wing Social Democrat Sanna Marin, and says he hasn’t been in any discussions with SDP’s new leader and likely future prime minister Antti Lindman – unlike with radical right’s Jussi Halla-aho in 2019.
A mere conjecture – for now
To reiterate: Orpo has large and growing incentives to do whatever it takes to win the leadership struggle in his own party and the 2027 elections, and he has previously displayed a remarkable readiness to bend his stated values and even promises when he believes it is in the public interest (and in his interests).
On the other hand, Finnish public is still strongly in favor of helping Ukraine for as long as it takes (even though support has begun to flag from the highest levels), and Orpo and the whole Finnish government remain officially committed to accepting only the deals that Ukraine accepts. It should also be noted that Finland’s foreign policy (EU excepted) is in the hands of the President, Alexander Stubb, who does not have similar incentives. Furthermore, I know of no evidence that Orpo or anyone in his government is secretly working to pressure Ukraine to disadvantageous peace.
However, with the Finns party – and parts of the Coalition party – viewing the EU and especially its common debt mechanism with unconcealed hostility, and with no end in sight for Finland’s economic woes (in fact, the government just announced it needs to do further massive austerity cuts), Orpo may not need to do much to reduce Finnish support and thus help pressure Ukraine towards disadvantageous peace. It may well be enough if he just ceases forcefully advocating for it, or finds excuses for delays. Such behind the scenes action would not leave incriminating evidence, and could always be explained as rational decision-making or even as the only option.
Observers would do well to follow closely for signs such as delays, downgrades, and opt-outs in Finnish support.
Follow me for occasional updates of Finland Explainer, where I write about what’s going on in Finland and its environs from a milquetoast left-liberal social democratic perspective.
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